Ghosts of Havana (Judd Ryker #3)(13)

“See why I invited him, Mel?” Parker smirked.

“This little chart tells us . . . what, exactly?” Eisenberg asked with a wince.

“The correlation suggests that even very small amounts of hard currency, deployed in the right places, could have large effects,” Judd explained. “It means that if we’re smart about it, we don’t need much cash to influence people in Cuba.”

“U.S. dollars equal political influence,” Parker said.

“In a place like Cuba, anyone controlling foreign currency is highly powerful,” Judd said. “We just need to use this leverage.”

“Money is power.” Eisenberg wasn’t impressed. “Big deal. Where isn’t that true?”

“But wait.” Parker paused for a moment. “I thought you just said we couldn’t send money to Cuba through the banks?”

“That’s right,” Eisenberg agreed.

“That actually helps us,” Judd said. “The Cuban government’s restrictions on banks and their control over foreign currency make U.S. dollars even scarcer. Even more valuable.”

“So cash can be a powerful weapon.” Parker nodded. Then he narrowed his eyes. “But how do we exploit this? What’s the plan, Ryker?”

“I don’t know yet, I’ve got to figure that out,” Judd said. “But if Cuba has a crisis, if the economy tanks or there’s a leadership vacuum, strategically deployed cash could be one of our strongest levers.”

“You’re suggesting we prepare for a massive campaign of bribery?” Eisenberg scowled.

“Not exactly,” Judd said. “You can’t just pay people off and then expect them to do your bidding. You’d need to sequence payments so your targets are always anticipating the next payout. Otherwise, they take the money and run. You pay, but you lose leverage.”

“That’s what we’ve been doing already,” Parker said. “Giving away concessions and not getting much in return.”

“Right. Immediate cash is never as powerful as the next payment. Any decent strategy must align these incentives.”

“Align incentives?” Melanie Eisenberg stood up to leave. “Are we still talking about Cuba policy, Landon?”

“We need to harness greed,” Judd said. “Individual greed can promote the common good. You see—”

“Is this another one of your theories, Dr. Ryker?” Eisenberg stood by the door, hands on her hips.

“It’s not my theory. It’s Adam Smith’s.”

“Adam Smith? The British economist who’s been dead for, what, two centuries?”

“Smith was more of a philosopher,” Judd said. “And Scottish. But, yes, him. He popularized the notion that individual motivations lead to collective good. It’s the foundation for capitalism.”

“In Cuba?” she growled, and turned to leave.

“Even communists respond to incentives,” Judd said.

“Melanie, wait,” Parker interrupted. “What are you saying, Ryker? How do these ideas help the United States in Cuba?”

“He’s saying that our Cuba plan should be to hope for a hurricane and then start handing out cash.” Eisenberg shook her head. “Hell of an idea, Landon, but I’ve got real work to do.”

“How about this.” Judd rubbed his hands together. “Imagine the Cuban leader died and in that same moment, when no one knows who or what comes next, we deployed suitcases of cash to the right people at the right time. We would control events. If we’re smart about it, we might even be able to pick the next leader of Cuba.”

“Now, that would be a legacy for the Secretary,” Parker said, nodding.

“I don’t understand why we’re even talking about this,” Eisenberg said. “ECP is healthy. We don’t kill foreign leaders, as far as I know. And we don’t have suitcases of cash to drop across Cuba. I thought Dr. Ryker was here to help us prevent problems, not invent fantasies. I’ve got a lunch meeting,” she said, and stormed out of the office.

Judd and Parker sat in silence for a moment.

“That went well,” Parker finally said, “I think.”

“You do?”

“Mel’s just trying to keep me out of her hair. She doesn’t want anyone getting in the way of her negotiations. Me, you, the White House. But I think you’re onto something, Ryker.”

“Thank you, sir.”

“It’s not implausible that something could throw our plans way off track. ECP could die or there could be a riot that turns Cuba upside down. Something big that we don’t expect that derails Mel’s negotiations. That’s why I want you thinking ahead about what could go wrong. And what we could do to respond.”

“I’ll get right on it, sir.”

“Great. I knew I could count on you, Ryker.” Parker stood up, indicating that their meeting was over.

Judd tilted his head to one side. “If you’re really worried about the formal talks breaking down, you might want to try an old Henry Kissinger trick.”

“Kissinger?”

“He always had a second communication track just in case things went wrong.”

“A backchannel?” Parker sat down again in his chair.