Ghosts of Havana (Judd Ryker #3)(12)

“Christ,” Parker huffed. “What about the recent arrests? What’s the story with these police sweeps, Mel?”

“It’s to be expected. The diplomatic thaw with America has created high expectations among the Cuban public. They are expecting to see money pour into the country, to see life get better right away. It’s almost inevitable that progress would generate some backlash. The opposition is stirring people up, too. That probably explains the uptick in dissident chatter and the surge in police arrests. But most of the trouble has been in Santiago in the east. That part of the country has always been hostile to authority in Havana. That’s where El Jefe started his rebellion. And eastern Cuba is where the opposition is strongest.”

“When will we have a timetable for elections?”

“Soon.”

“What about clear succession for when El Comrade Presidente eventually dies?”

“Not yet.” She shook her head. “That’s all part of the next round of negotiations.”

“Is ECP even in control?” Parker asked.

“Yes,” she insisted. “We don’t see any credible challengers to him. Not from within the Party and not from the opposition.”

“What about military intelligence?”

“There are some hard-liners. But we believe they will stay loyal to ECP as long as progress continues,” she said.

“As long as progress continues,” Parker repeated. “That’s why I want Ryker here with us. His idea about Minute Zero just worked wonders in Zimbabwe. So, what about Cuba, Ryker? What do you think—”

“Excuse me,” Eisenberg interrupted. “Minute what?”

Judd sat up straight and quickly explained the idea. “The moment of chaos after a shock. That’s Minute Zero. That’s our window,” he said.

Parker winked at Eisenberg.

“I don’t understand,” she said, frowning. “We’re trying to make history by thawing relations with Cuba. We’re trying to keep things on track. You’re talking about disruption? About creating chaos?”

“Minute Zero is a theory of crisis response,” Judd said.

“Well, we don’t have time for ivory-tower academic theories here,” Eisenberg said. “We have to be practical.”

“Cool your jets, Mel,” Parker interjected. “Ryker knows all about the drivers of crises. And he’s applied his ideas to help us in Mali last year and just recently in Zimbabwe. I’m hoping he can work his magic again and help us identify problems. To head off anything that could interfere with our Cuba policy.”

“So you’d like S/CRU to identify potential risks to our relations with Cuba?” Judd asked.

“The longer Melanie’s negotiations drag out, the more chances for something to go drastically wrong. What should we be most worried about? And how could we respond to the most likely problems? If the economy gets worse . . . If they get slammed by a hurricane . . . If El Comrade Presidente suddenly dies . . . I want to know how we can control events if things get crazy. Can you do that, Ryker?”

“Of course, Mr. Parker. I’ll get right on it.”

“How about right now? What do you think?”

“Right now?” Judd wriggled in his chair.

Parker nodded. “Start with the economy. What should we do?”

“Well . . . if the Cuban government is bankrupt and economic collapse is a possibility, why don’t we give them a large aid package? Or an emergency loan? That would calm the markets,” Judd suggested.

“No,” Eisenberg replied. “Congress has our Cuba budget on a tight leash and there’s no way we’d get approval to pay the government directly. What else you got?”

“What about injecting money directly into the economy?” Judd offered. “We wouldn’t need the government. We could stimulate the economy through the banks.”

“The Cubans still aren’t allowing American banks,” she said, shaking her head again. “Everything’s still done through the government or in cash.”

“Cash?”

“After the BesoPeso debacle, the Cubans are wary of opening up the financial sector,” Eisenberg said. “That’s a dead end, too.”

“Ryker,” Parker turned to Judd. “BesoPeso was a secret CIA program to create an electronic currency to pay off opposition groups. Cuban military intelligence uncovered and blocked it. They’ve got a counter-destabilization team in Havana that’s still very powerful. They’ve beaten our guys across the river for years. Isn’t that right, Mel?”

“Yes, Landon. Cuban intelligence has been one step ahead of us. That’s why we are pushing the diplomatic solution. But injecting cash through the banks is out. Unless you want to drop dollar bills by helicopter, we’d need something else.”

Judd stared at the ceiling for a moment while he thought. Then he pulled a sheet of paper out of his briefcase and held up a chart displaying lines rising and falling in waves. “I’ve been analyzing Cuban price data. The black line is the black-market exchange rate for the Cuban peso on the streets in Santiago. It’s the true value of the local currency. The green line is an index of social media activity on the island that’s been coded as supportive of the underground opposition. Neither measure is perfect, but they are reasonable indicators of financial stress and political sentiment. What’s interesting is that they are highly correlated. When one moves, so does the other.”