Ghosts of Havana (Judd Ryker #3)(11)

Parker frowned and shook his head.

“Are you saying the Secretary isn’t happy?” Eisenberg asked. “I just had breakfast with her this morning and she didn’t say a thing.”

“It’s not the Secretary.”

“The White House?” Eisenberg’s face flushed. “Is the NSC meddling on Cuba again? Do I need to call Tony and rip him a new one?”

“No, it’s not them. It’s me. I’ve been in this job too long, I’ve seen too much, to believe it could be going so well. It’s unsettling, Mel.”

“You’re upset that Cuba’s too clean?” Eisenberg scoffed.

“Not upset. Wary. And that’s why I’ve asked Ryker here from S/CRU to join us. He’s been doing some fascinating work on big-data analytics for the department. He’s crunching numbers to try to anticipate problems before they happen. I thought Ryker could help us today to problem-solve on Cuba.”

“What problems, Landon?” Eisenberg ignored Judd. “We’re following the reengagement playbook that we all agreed on. You signed off on it. You just said it’s all going according to plan.”

“Our side is moving quickly. But Cuba’s not changing fast enough, Mel. I don’t see any signs of real democracy inside the country. Do you? The same geezers are still in charge. The police are still arresting activists. The intelligence services are still suppressing the opposition. The government isn’t even allowing American business to operate freely.”

“This all takes time, Landon. You knew that,” she said.

“Capitol Hill is getting impatient,” Parker said. “They’re complaining that we gave away the embassy exchange without any assurances of democratic change. Did you see Adelman-Zamora’s hearing this morning?”

“Of course I did,” Eisenberg said. “The Miami lobby is never going to be happy. You can’t get cold feet on me now, Landon.”

“Well, let me play devil’s advocate for a second, Mel. What if Adelman-Zamora . . . is right? What if we’re giving benefits to the Cubans and not getting much in return? Now that we’re locked in to normalization, what’s our leverage?”

“Now you sound like the Cold War dinosaurs we had to fight just to get where we are. Don’t tell me you’re working some other angle, Landon. Is there a Track Two strategy going on here that I need to know about?”

“No, Mel. There’s no second track. I’m just trying to help,” Parker said.

“We just need more time, Landon. We’re building trust with Havana, brick by brick.”

“I don’t know if we have much time. There are still too many people here in Washington and in Havana that want us to fail. And every day that it takes is another opportunity for something to go drastically wrong.”

“What are you saying, Landon?”

“I’m saying that we’ve bet the Secretary’s whole legacy on Cuba’s transition to democracy. I know it all looks smooth on the surface, but I worry there’s trouble brewing. Isn’t that right, Ryker?”

“There are definite signs of economic strain,” Judd said. “I was just looking at the data this morning. Without support from Venezuela and Iran, Cuba’s hard currency reserves are at their lowest level since the fall of the Soviet Union. There are shortages of fuel and cooking oil in some parts of the country. We are even seeing wheat scarcities.”

“Wheat?” Eisenberg winced.

“Yes, prices for staple starches like wheat, corn, and rice are a leading indicator of political distress,” Judd explained. “And Cuban wheat stocks are at an all-time low.”

“That makes no sense. Why would wheat stocks be low?”

“No one knows,” Judd said. “It’s a puzzle.”

“See, Mel,” Parker said, “this is what I’m talking about. How are we securing a Cuba legacy for the Secretary if we don’t have a clue what’s going on inside the country? Are they really ready for normalization? Or are we walking into a trap?”

“Look, Landon,” Eisenberg said, taking a deep breath. “The Cubans are nervous about letting go. It’s understandable. Their system’s been stuck in a time warp for half a century. This was never going to be all smooth sailing. You knew that.”

“They still don’t trust us,” Parker said.

“Of course not,” she said. “That’s the whole point of our new strategy. To build confidence.”

“Mel, do we have any signs—I mean, actual evidence—that our carrots are encouraging Havana to move toward open markets and a free democracy?”

“It’s still a socialist country, Landon,” Eisenberg said. “The government provides free housing, free education, free health care. It’s taking time for them to open up to private enterprise.”

“I thought they agreed to allow private business in exchange for a reduction in our travel and trade sanctions. Wasn’t that the deal?”

“On paper, yes. But the government still owns all property and controls all wages. It’s one of the issues we’re working on.”

“Cuba still has a maximum wage,” Judd offered.

“A maximum wage?” Parker grimaced.

“Socialist.” Judd shrugged. “Just like Assistant Secretary Eisenberg said.”