Fear: Trump in the White House(23)
Putin, he said, had “in a systematic way” upgraded not only his nuclear forces but his tactical, conventional and Special Forces. “If Russia became an adversary and we went toe-to-toe with them, we’d face the reality of Putin using innovation, technology and sheer effort.”
Flynn then spoke openly about the possibility the United States might have to begin testing nuclear weapons. The last U.S. test had been in 1992. “We are going to have to decide if we test again,” he said. The computer tests might not be sufficient and it was important to see if the weapons worked.
“My counsel to the boss, I said we are going to have to devote time, energy and resources to this.” He said Trump’s plan was to talk and act tough—send “a shot across the bow” of Putin. He added, “We will be leaning on the Reagan playbook.” Be aggressive and then negotiate. “We have to make it clear at the same time that we’ll deal with Russia. You can’t just have one view of Russia.”
Flynn was being widely criticized for going to Russia to speak for $33,750 from the Russian state–owned television network in 2015. He said it was an opportunity and he got to meet Putin. “Anyone would go,” he said.
Flynn did a question-and-answer session in Moscow. He made a standard plea for better U.S. relations to defeat ISIS, the importance of defining the enemy, and not trying just to contain ISIS as Obama had done. Overall on foreign policy Flynn told me, “The president-elect is taking on this plate of shit throughout the world. The world is a mess. There’s lots of cleaning up to do.”
CHAPTER
8
After the election, President Obama directed his intelligence chiefs to produce a definitive, highly classified report on Russian election interference, with all the sources and details. It would be briefed to the Gang of Eight in Congress and to President-elect Trump.
An unclassified, scaled-back version with the same conclusions, but without identifying the sources, would be made public before Obama left office on January 20.
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, CIA Director John Brennan, FBI Director James Comey and National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers met to work on talking points for the briefing to Trump. They knew he would see the report as challenging his win, casting doubt on the legitimacy of his election. They agreed they would have to speak with one voice.
“This is our story and we’re sticking to it,” Clapper said, encouraging solidarity. Clapper would be the main briefer. It was essential they speak with confidence. Clearly the briefing was going to stir the beast.
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Earlier, in December, Brennan had called Clapper. He had received a copy of a 35-page dossier, a series of reports from former British MI6 senior officer Christopher Steele that detailed alleged efforts by Russia to interfere with and influence the presidential election—to cause chaos, damage Hillary Clinton and help Trump. The dossier also contained salacious claims about Trump, Russian prostitutes and “golden showers.”
“You should read this,” Brennan told Clapper. The FBI already had a top secret counterintelligence investigation under way to see if there was any collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. “This will add substantiation to what we are doing.” It was not proof, but it seemed to be on the same trail.
Clapper consulted with the FBI. How should we handle it with Trump?
The FBI was familiar with the document. Steele had shared portions of the dossier with them, and on December 9 Senator John McCain had shared a copy with FBI director Comey.
Andrew McCabe, the FBI deputy, was concerned. He thought if they failed to tell President-elect Trump about the dossier when they briefed him about the intelligence community report on Russia, it would make the FBI look as if they were back in the old days of J. Edgar Hoover—as if to say, we have dirt on people, and we’re keeping it to ourselves. Comey agreed. The Hoover legacy still cast a shadow over the bureau.
Clapper wanted to make sure they developed a consistent tradecraft model as they merged their intelligence into one report. The FBI and CIA have different standards.
The FBI conducts criminal investigations in addition to gathering intelligence. The bureau tends to be more rigorous in their sourcing and verification. What began as a pure counterintelligence investigation might morph into a criminal investigation, with intelligence becoming evidence that must stand up in court.
The CIA’s mission is to gather intelligence and disseminate it to the White House and the rest of the federal government. It does not have to be as solid because normally it would not be used in a criminal trial.
Just as the FBI was haunted by Hoover, the CIA had its own ghost. In the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the CIA made a huge mistake. In part as a result of lies told by a key source—amazingly code-named “Curveball”—who claimed he had worked in a mobile chemical weapons lab in Iraq, the CIA had concluded that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The case had been a “slam dunk,” according to a presentation CIA director George Tenet made to President George W. Bush. The alleged presence of WMD was the key justification for the Iraq invasion. No WMD were found, an acute embarrassment for the president and the CIA.
Clapper knew that mistake hung over much of what the CIA did and analyzed. One agency procedure was to polygraph sources as often as possible. While passing a lie detector test would never be considered complete proof, passing was a good barometer of truthfulness.