Everything Is F*cked(81)
And as the war rages, the real pain and deprivation set in. Economies collapse. People go hungry. Anarchy ensues. And the worse the conditions get, the more antifragile people become. Before, with their satellite cable TV package and a dead-end job, they didn’t know what to hope for. Now they know exactly what to hope for: peace, solace, respite. And their hope ends up uniting what used to be a fractured, disparate population under the banner of one religion.
Once the war is over, with the immense destruction etched in their recent memory, people learn to hope for simpler things: a stable family, a steady job, a child who is safe—like actually safe. Not this “Don’t let them play outside by themselves” safe.
Hope is reset throughout society. And a period of peace and prosperity resumes. (Sort of.)
There’s one last component to this harebrained theory that I still haven’t spoken about: inequality. During periods of prosperity, more and more economic growth is driven by diversions. And because diversions scale so easily—after all, who doesn’t want to post selfies on Instagram?—wealth becomes extremely concentrated in fewer hands. This growing wealth disparity then feeds the “revolution of rising expectations.” Everyone feels that their life is supposed to be better, yet it’s not what they expected; it’s not as pain-free as they had hoped. Therefore, they line up on their ideological sides—master moralists over here, slave moralists over there—and they fight.
And during the fighting and destruction, no one has time for diversions. In fact, diversions can get you killed.
No, in war, everything is about gaining an advantage. And to gain an advantage, you must invest in innovations. Military research has driven most of the greatest innovation in human history. War not only restores balance to people’s hope and fragility, but it is, sadly, also the only thing that dependably resets wealth inequality. It’s another boom/bust cycle. Although, this time, instead of it being financial markets or a population’s fragility, it’s political power.
The sad fact is that war is not only an inherent part of human existence; it’s likely a necessary by-product of our existence as well. It’s not an evolutionary bug; it’s a feature. Of the past 3,400 years, humans have been at peace for a total of 268 of them. That’s not even 8 percent of recorded history.
War is the natural fallout from our erroneous hopes. It’s where our religions get tested for their solidarity and usefulness. It’s what promotes innovation and motivates us to work and evolve.
And it is the only thing that is consistently able to get people to get over their own happiness, to develop true virtue of character, to develop an ability to withstand pain, and to fight and live for something other than themselves.
This is likely why the ancient Greeks and Romans believed virtue necessitated war. There was an inherent humility and bravery required not just to succeed in war, but also to be a good person. The strife brings out the best in us. And, in a sense, virtue and death always go hand in hand.
9. The “commercial age” is just something I made up, if I’m being honest. Really, what it refers to, I suppose, is the postindustrial age, the age when commerce began to expand into producing unnecessary goods. I think of it as similar to what Ron Davison calls the “Third Economy.” See R. Davison, The Fourth Economy: Inventing Western Civilization, self-published ebook, 2011.
10. This is a well-documented issue. See Carol Cadwalladr, “Google, Democracy, and the Truth About Internet Search,” Guardian, December 4, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/04/google-democracy-truth-internet-search-facebook.
11. Not only is this sort of surveillance creepy, but it’s a perfect illustration of a tech company treating its customers as mere means rather than ends. In fact, I would argue that the feeling of creepiness is itself the sensation of being treated as merely a means. Even though we “opt in” to these services that harvest our data, we’re not fully knowledgeable and/or aware of this; therefore, it feels as though we haven’t consented. This feeling of nonconsent is what makes us feel disrespected and treated as a means, and is therefore why we get upset. See K. Tiffany, “The Perennial Debate About Whether Your Phone Is Secretly Listening to You, Explained,” Vox, December 28, 2018, https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/12/28/18158968/facebook-microphone-tapping-recording-instagram-ads.
12. You know, because torture doesn’t scale well.
13. Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less (New York: Ecco, 2004).
14. There’s a lot of data that shows that this is incredibly effective. It’s another example of working with your Feeling Brain (in this case, scaring it into doing the right thing) rather than against it. This is so effective that the researchers who originally studied it created a website called stickk.com that allows people to set up these agreements with their friends. I actually used it to hit a deadline with my last book (and it worked!).
15. He ended up losing to the chess grandmaster because, as it turns out, chess has hundreds of millions of potential moves, and it’s impossible to map out an entire game from beginning to end. I’m citing no source because this hack job doesn’t deserve more attention.
16. Robert Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2001).
17. F. Sarracino, “Social Capital and Subjective Well-being Trends: Comparing 11 Western European Countries,” Journal of Socio-Economics 39 (2010): 482–517.