Ghosts of Havana (Judd Ryker #3)(19)
“I’ve got this one,” Ricky said as he hauled a large case onto the boat and then disappeared down the hold.
A few seconds later, Ricky’s head reappeared. “Let’s get the rest of these down below and then I’ll run an engine check for you, Al.”
“Bueno, Ricky. Where’s the new GPS?”
“In the secure case in hold four. It’s with the backup satellite phone. I’ll leave you with a spare battery, too.”
“You’re not coming with us?” Dennis asked.
“Not today.”
“I’m the f*cking captain of The Big Pig,” Al said. “Plus I’ve got two Navy boys with me. You can be my radio officer, Deuce. Not a bad crew for a little fishing expedition.”
Crawford set down a crate. “This is a shitload of gear for a fishing trip, Al. What the hell are we loading?” he asked.
“Provisions,” Al said. “You never know what you’ll need hunting out in the open ocean. And we can’t run out of beer and Cuban sandwiches.” Al winked, then lifted a red cooler.
“All this for marlin fishing?” Dennis asked.
“Marlin.” Brinkley nodded. “Maybe some bonefish.”
14.
U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT HEADQUARTERS, WASHINGTON, D.C.
WEDNESDAY, 9:03 A.M.
Judd had arrived in the office early that morning to continue working on his memo for Landon Parker. He was trying to anticipate scenarios that might go wrong in Cuba and outline responses for the State Department. It was precisely why his Crisis Reaction Unit had been created.
This morning, however, Judd was stuck. What causes revolts? It was a question that politicians had been mulling for centuries. What final straw causes people finally to rise up and overthrow their own government? Analysts had been trying to unlock that puzzle for decades. It had been an academic interest of Judd’s when he was a graduate student and then a professor at Amherst College. Databases had been compiled with every variable possible: population, demographics, ethnic composition, corruption, and financial data. Complex statistics attempted to tease out the factors that were associated either with a rebellion or with prolonged periods of stability.
Judd had used this exact approach of building large databases and quantitative analysis to come up with his Golden Hour theory about the need for speed when responding to an international crisis. He had discovered that slow reaction time was statistically correlated with failure. He then made a slight—and he thought defensible—leap to claim, therefore, that waiting too long to react to a coup or outbreak of civil war meant a steep decline in the chance of U.S. policy success. It was the kind of conclusion that would be scorned in the academic community. But they gobbled it up in Washington. The Golden Hour was the basis for S/CRU. His job was built on a data model. And on Landon Parker’s enthusiastic support.
Quick response by the United States government made intuitive sense to Judd, even if he didn’t quite fully believe the numbers himself. Correlation does not equal causation. That was the very first lesson he taught his students. But inside the American government, quantitative evidence was seen as proof, and thus was a powerful weapon in the policy trenches. Whether the numbers were right or not was entirely beside the point. That was the very first lesson he had learned from Landon Parker.
Now he was tasked with helping Parker foresee problems in Cuba. However, this morning Judd wasn’t finding much. He looked at his two computer screens. The one on the left was unclassified, connected to the Internet. The monitor on the right was connected to SIPRNet, the government’s computer system cleared up to level Secret.
—
On his unclassified computer, he opened an online window to access the Amherst College library and searched the political science journals for determinants of popular mass revolts. One study from Stanford pointed to ratios of ethnic composition of cabinet ministers. Another from the University of Texas suggested that the concentration of land and livestock ownership was a factor. A third study from Tufts University found correlations between political unrest and changes in the prices of an index of rice, cooking oil, and fuel. Nothing particularly helpful.
“Dr. Ryker?” Judd looked up from his computer to see the familiar face of his assistant, Serena. “I’m sorry to interrupt, but I thought this might be useful,” she said, brandishing a bright red folder. “I compiled all the cables from Havana and highlighted the most critical sections.”
“Thank you, Serena. I don’t pay you enough.”
“No comment, Dr. Ryker. I’ve also forwarded to you the latest intel assessments on SIPRNet. Will you be needing a SCIF today?” she asked. For really squirrely information, anything classified as Top Secret, Judd would have to go down the hall to a special room called a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility—a SCIF, in government shorthand.
“No, thank you, Serena.”
“I also printed you a copy of Assistant Secretary Eisenberg’s speech that she gave last month at the Miami Chamber of Commerce. I think you’ll find it useful.”
“Melanie Eisenberg . . .” Judd muttered to himself. “Have you found out anything that . . . I should know?”
“The Assistant Secretary is a shark.”
“A shark?” Judd eyed his assistant. “I heard that she’s close with Bill Rogerson over in African Affairs. Is that what you mean?”